The Telegraph, 27 April, 2017
The ongoing crisis in Northeast Asia continues to creep toward a possible flashpoint this week, as North Korea holds one of the largest military drills of conventional war fighting. China and Russia have both mobilized troops on North Korea’s border, though in support of the North, or in anticipation of refugee outflows, is uncertain. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has continued pushing forward its China strategy of solving this 4th North Korean Crisis.
First, it has continued to hint at the possibility of military action by testing a Minuteman III ICBM – a pressure point, one dearly hopes, for its diplomacy. Second, it has sought support for its strategy domestically, by undertaking an unprecedented briefing for the entire Senate at the White House. Third, and finally, it has opened up space for a possible resolution in the United Nations Security Council, where the United States currently holds the presidency.
As many experts have already said, the fact is that Korea is the land of bad options. We have all read how terrible a conflict on the Peninsula would be, both because of the large size and relative sophistication of the forces arrayed against each other.
North Korea’s apparent indifference to civilian casualties – clearly shown in its recent use of VR toxin in a crowded Malaysian airport – mean that it is likely to use its 13,000 artillery pieces against South Korea’s nearby capital city, Seoul.
The fact that the last conflict on the Peninsula also saw American and Chinese troops fighting for the only time during the Cold War reveals how quickly things could jump to conflict between great powers. On the other hand, it is not clear this is a crisis of Trump’s choosing.
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