The Telegraph, June 16, 2023
Last month’s news that the Pacific island nation of Papua New Guinea (PNG) has signed an agreement with the United States, granting US forces access to PNG ports and military bases, seems yet another chess move on the strategic Pacific map of the Indo-Pacific region. One need only remember that in April last year, it was Beijing that had just announced a security deal, this one with the Solomon Islands.
Seen from the perspective of Honolulu, where I write, all of this seems an increasing sign of the China-driven strategic competition that has blown up over the past few years. So, what’s driving the contest and how risky is it for countries like PNG or the Solomons to be involved?
In the case of PNG, it is likely to be driven by a combination of things. One friend, a former government official, told me recently that the development effect of US funding and capacity-building is likely to be a driver. The promise of US spending – guaranteed by the agreements just signed – play a role. It was only a few years ago that another PNG friend – this one still in government – confided to me his concerns that China was taking over the region. He noted that many of the local businesses in his area had been taken over by Chinese shop keepers and that they seemed to know who was in government and who wasn’t. My friend, somewhat senior, was often offered goods on credit, something that bothered him. Our conversation at the time struck me as a warning of the full-throttle competition we are seeing today.
“You’re [the US is] going to lose the race if you’re not careful,” he warned me.
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Geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific 